Why not tune into Agriculture Victoria’s new production TheVery Fast Break on YouTube—a monthly weather forecast for all ages and occupations.
Members of the Willowmavin Landcare group recently met with Agricultural Victoria Seasonal Risk Agronomist Dale Grey at the Kilmore Trackside to watch him present the latest climate outlook.
Mr Grey’s career with Agricultural Victoria spans 31 years, and for 17 of those years he has provided seasonal climate updates to farmers via The Fast Break newsletter.
The updates are based on data collected from the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration Service (NOAA) and the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
The climate data has predicted rainfall and temperatures for Victoria, and is collated to support farmers take advantage of optimal weather conditions, and more importantly, to prepare for adverse weather events.
Twelve years ago, Agriculture Victoria began publishing an animated version of the newsletter which Mr Grey features in.
The clips are presented in under three minutes with subtitles, and are free to access. They are popular too, with the October segment receiving over 2100 views.
To create the November forecast, Mr Grey also collected data from soil moisture probes scattered across Victoria, including the one closest to Kilmore and located at Baynton.
The soil moisture probes are submerged between 10–80cm into the soil to get the most probable reading of underground water storage.
Mr Grey said an integral climate driver for Victoria is the sea surface anomaly data and its temperatures.
“The water to the north of us is warmer than usual,” he said.
“Warmer water evaporates more moisture as a rainfall source, but warmer water surrounding Australia is also warming the airmass by a small amount too.”
When it comes to predicting climate patterns such as the long anticipated La Nina, the Pacific Ocean holds the key.
Mr Grey said the usual spring rains which farmers rely on to support their pasture productions depends on the connection to tropical moisture.
“There can be no La Nina if there are no stronger winds in the Central Pacific [Ocean] and they currently are not interested,” he said.
“The ocean and the atmosphere are not locking together. It’s too late for [La Nina] to arrive to affect our spring, [but] it is possible it can happen over summer.”
The Fast Break newsletter is available on the Agriculture Victoria website via bit.ly/3CrDMTB,and The Very Fast Break November update is available to watch on YouTube via bit.ly/4fnW0UB.
